Making go/no-go decisions isn’t always a breeze, especially when it comes to marginal weather. Take a look at this scenario, make your choice, and let us know what you’d do by sending an email to scenarios@boldmethod.com.
Let’s get this adventure underway!
The Flight Scenario
You’re an instrument-rated private pilot, and you need to fly from Tulsa (KTUL) to Clinton (KCCA) for a meeting. Your plane is in tip-top shape and is certified for IFR. It’s midday, and the conditions to the west are VFR, but along your route to Clinton, they gradually become more marginal (MVFR).
You initially planned to take this trip under VFR, but now you’re pondering whether to file for IFR or if you should even embark on the journey with the developing rain showers heading east.
You’ve flown this route a few times before. The small hills of the Upper Buffalo Wilderness are your sole terrain consideration, reaching a maximum of approximately 1,000′ AGL. Two thin bands of light rain showers cross your path (they’re slowly moving from west to east). There’s currently no icing risk.
Red dots represent IFR conditions, blue dots indicate MVFR conditions, and green dots represent VFR conditions.
Diverting to the north isn’t feasible due to widespread IFR conditions around Bentonville. Flying to the south means encountering heavier rain showers. The TAF at Tulsa remains VFR, but there’s no TAF at or near Clinton. Here’s the current weather…
KTUL METAR (Departure): KTUL 111953Z 3508KT 310V020 10SM FEW020 OVC200 23/15 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP240 T00001089
KFYV METAR (Enroute Mid-Point): KFYV 111953Z 3507KT 7SM OVC019 20/17 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP229 T10501056
KCCA METAR (Destination): KCCA 112015Z AUTO 29013KT 10SM OVC019 19/18 A2994 RMK AO2
Your Legal Requirements
Your flight will take place during the middle of the day. Depending on how high you plan to fly, you’ll be in either Class G or Class E airspace for the majority of the journey. These are your daytime VFR weather minimums:
- Class G (Below 1,200′ AGL): 1SM of Visibility, Clear of Clouds.
- Class E (Under 10,000′ MSL): 3SM of Visibility + 500′ Below, 1,000′ Above, and 2,000′ Horizontally Clear of Clouds.
The weather stations along your route indicate that the current conditions exceed the legal requirements.
Considerations
You’re instrument rated and your plane is equipped to fly in instrument conditions, but you initially envisioned taking this trip under VFR.
There’s no straightforward way to analyze the conditions beneath the two bands of light rain along your route. There’s also an area of rising terrain in the middle of the route, but the hills only rise about a thousand feet.
You’ve always regarded yourself as a good decision-maker, and you know you possess the instrument skills to stay safe if the conditions start to worsen. Since you’ve flown this route before, you’re familiar with the terrain and the nearby airports. You don’t think this flight will lead to “scud running,” as the ceilings are still relatively high.
What Would You Do?
There’s a lot to consider here, and there isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer.
Would you go? Let us know your decision by sending an email to scenarios@boldmethod.com or leave a comment below to tell us your go/no-go decision and the reason behind it.
