Making go/no-go decisions isn’t always a straightforward task. Especially when summer storms come into play, it becomes even more challenging.
Read through the scenario, and then email your decision to scenarios@boldmethod.com.
The Flight Scenario
You are a non-instrument rated private pilot flying an IFR-capable Piper PA-28 Archer from KJQF Concord, NC (near Charlotte) to KROA Roanoke, VA. You are taking this 121-mile VFR cross-country flight from Charlotte to Roanoke to avoid a 3.5-hour drive and make it back home from Concord. It’s now 4:15 PM Eastern time.
There are scattered storms along the route. You are trying to determine if there is a safe route that will get you to Roanoke without significant east or west diversions, as those diversions would add hundreds of miles to your journey.
Weather stations on either side of your route report VFR, MVFR, and even some IFR conditions. Storms are highly localized, and it’s difficult to accurately know just how bad the weather will be beneath the clouds.
As you approach Roanoke, there will be areas of terrain reaching as high as 4,000 feet MSL. If you wait for a few hours, you will arrive at night. While you are night current, you also recognize that you would be navigating around terrain and storms in the dark. So, what’s your plan?
Red dots indicate IFR conditions, blue dots indicate MVFR conditions, and green dots indicate VFR conditions.
If you are unable to fly through the rain midway along your route, you could turn South and divert to Greensboro (KGSO). If you do make it to Roanoke and storms cover the field, you can divert to the North. You’d like to at least give it a shot and see how things unfold before canceling the flight.
Here’s the current weather along the route:
- KJQF METAR (Departure): 121950Z 00000KT 10SM SCT100 33/31 A3001
- KMWK METAR (Enroute Mid-Point, North): 121955Z AUTO 32003KT BKN008 OVC014 23/21 A3005 RMK AO2 P0003 T02280214
- KMTV METAR (Enroute Mid-Point, South): 121955Z AUTO 01006KT 10SM -TSRA SCT018 OVC040 26/25 A3004 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P004 T02570251
- KROA METAR (Destination): 121954Z 25006KT 10SM FEW028 BKN120 29/23 A3005 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S SLP161 T02890228
Your Legal Requirements
VFR cloud and visibility requirements are determined by the time of day, altitude, and airspace. Your route will be flown during the day. Depending on how high you want to fly, you’ll either be flying in Class G or Class E airspace for the majority of the flight.
- Class C: 3SM of Visibility + 500′ Below, 1,000′ Above, and 2,000′ Horizontally Clear of Clouds.
- Class D: 3SM of Visibility + 500′ Below, 1,000′ Above, and 2,000′ Horizontally Clear of Clouds.
- Class G (Below 1,200′ AGL): 1SM of Visibility, Clear of Clouds.
- Class E (Under 10,000′ MSL): 3SM of Visibility + 500′ Below, 1,000′ Above, and 2,000′ Horizontally Clear of Clouds.
The weather stations along the majority of your route indicate that current conditions exceed VFR cloud and visibility requirements. You’ll be departing from Class D and landing in Class C airspace.
Destination Airport Forecast
Fortunately, the Class C Roanoke Airport has a TAF. The current time period shows VFR conditions, which are expected to deteriorate to MVFR conditions between 5-6 PM, including moderate rain, thunderstorms, and cumulonimbus clouds. Later on, the TAF once again improves to VFR conditions.
There are thunderstorms to the S-SE of the airport, slowly moving Northbound.
Considerations
Given the light rain indicated between scattered thunderstorms, you might be able to find VFR conditions sufficient to make it to Roanoke.
Another issue is the terrain. Roanoke is located in a valley, and nearby peaks extend up to 4,000′ MSL. This makes “scud running” through rain extremely hazardous.
There isn’t a great way to analyze the conditions beneath the bands of light rain along your route other than through local airport weather reports. Airports to the north and south indicate MVFR and IFR, but the airports closest to your destination are VFR.
You have always regarded yourself as a safe and cautious pilot, and you know you have the skills to stay safe and turn around if conditions worsen. Additionally, you have flown the route before, so you are familiar with the terrain and nearby airports. The flight has you puzzled because the weather exceeds legal requirements on paper, but you also don’t have an adequate means to determine where pockets of rain will result in IFR conditions.
There is a lot to consider here, and there is no one “right” answer. The safest option will always be to stay on the ground. There is risk associated with taking off in any airplane. Should you depart and see how things progress, and turn around if conditions deteriorate? We’ll leave this up to you…
What’s Your Decision?
Would you go? Why wouldn’t you? What would it take for you to make a go/no-go decision? Is there any missing information you need to make the best decision?
Tell us your decision in the comments below, or send us an email to scenarios@boldmethod.com to share what your go/no-go decision is and why.
