The first shot fired in GA’s long-awaited attempt to address the need for unleaded aviation gasoline was launched at the GAMA meeting in Washington, D.C. last spring. The message was clear: the GA industry and the FAA are fully committed to phasing out 100LL aviation gasoline and transitioning to unleaded fuels by 2030, which is just a few years away. Since then, the FAA has granted approval for the use of GAMI’s 100UL in numerous small planes. However, this is only the beginning, as GA faces numerous challenges in making unleaded fuel widely available and requires significant investment.
That early 2022 announcement was made by former FAA Administrator Steve Dickson, perhaps as a parting gift to aviation. It’s an issue that the EPA takes seriously, but it’s one that few others in Washington seem to care about. The EPA has the power to ban unleaded aviation gas altogether, and it may do so at some point. The GAMA event announcement was largely a signal to the EPA, indicating GA’s understanding of the need to eliminate 100LL fuel. This is a significant matter, as 100LL has been the sole fuel for piston-powered aircraft in the country for decades and the only leaded fuel used in the US transportation sector. It’s remarkable that the EPA has allowed 100LL to exist for so long, especially considering its relatively small contribution to aviation fuel overall.
If you’re wondering why it took so long for this industry-wide commitment to materialize, you’re not alone. Aviation has been slow to embrace unleaded fuels compared to other industries. In fact, as early as the mid-1970s, the automotive industry made a significant transition to unleaded fuel. By the mid-1980s, leaded auto fuels had decreased significantly, and by 1992, California had banned leaded auto fuel, and it was banned throughout the US by 1996. That was 26 years ago. Leaded fuel was almost completely phased out a decade earlier, and it was widely known that lead was on its way out decades ago. Aviation, on the other hand, has been relying on a less-effective lead-reduced fuel for decades, hoping for a major improvement that never fully materialized.
Though 100 Low Lead was introduced as a significant step, it didn’t live up to the expectations. The new formulation had lower lead levels than some of the fuels it replaced, but the name misled the public into believing it had extremely low lead content. In reality, 100LL still had significant amounts of lead, and it was a step backward compared to earlier leaded fuels. The limited availability of 80 octane fuel in the late 1970s and its absence by the end of the 1990s further complicated the situation. The total lead emission reduction with the introduction of 100LL was likely not as significant as initially hoped, and yet, the industry has been relying on this appearance of improvement for decades.
When airport authorities start citing the presence of lead as a reason to shut down airports, they are not entirely at fault. Light GA, along with the FAA, has shouldered a large part of the blame. We find ourselves today, after decades of delay, seriously considering unleaded fuels. The self-congratulatory tone is somewhat hard to swallow, especially considering the FAA’s lack of significant progress in promoting unleaded aviation fuel development over the past few decades. Sweden has had an acceptable unleaded 90/95 octane fuel since 1991, while the US is only now seriously addressing the issue. The FAA’s announcement of phasing out leaded avgas by the next decade seems more like a reaction to being caught rather than a real accomplishment. And GA has been caught unprepared, unable to make a cold-turkey transition if it wanted to. The move by the Santa Clara County Commissioners in California to ban 100LL at airports and close a busy GA airport is a wake-up call that GA should have heeded decades ago.
A few weeks after the GAMA reveal, at Sun ‘n Fun 2022, the heads of three general aviation member organizations discussed the potential pathway to a 100LL-free future. They agreed that this transition is likely to start in 2030, which is likely to be mandated by the EPA. The discussion was framed by John “Lites” Leenhouts, who suggested that GA groups band together to fight the banning of 100LL. However, Jack Pelton quickly corrected the notion that GA had any say in the matter, stating that it is an international issue and that the removal of lead will affect the entire world. He added that the determination could come this year, leading to a rulemaking process that could establish a timeline by 2030. If this happens, aviation has only a few years left before 100LL is phased out.
Mark Baker, President and CEO of AOPA, concurred with Pelton on the complexity of the situation, emphasizing that finding a suitable unleaded fuel is just one part of the problem. The small market size of avgas and the need for a profitable transition make it a challenging task. AOPA is advocating for a drop-in solution that is competitively priced and available by 2030. Baker also highlighted the importance of ensuring the availability of 100LL until a viable replacement is found, as some airplanes rely on higher-horsepower engines and consume a significant amount of fuel. Pete Bunce, GAMA President and CEO, mentioned that refining higher-octane unleaded fuel is possible but expensive, and he expressed concern about the lack of multiple fuel options and the potential for regional fuel distribution. He suggested that developing multiple fuels that are compatible with each other could help drive down prices. When asked about the approval process for new fuels, Bunce said it would follow the same industry consensus standards as before.
In conclusion, the journey to unleaded GA is a complex and challenging one. There are many factors to consider, including the development of suitable fuels, approval processes, refinery readiness, and distribution networks. The industry doesn’t have much time to achieve this transition, and it needs to work together to find viable solutions. The self-congratulatory tone may be premature, as there is still a lot of work to be done. However, with determination and collaboration, it is possible to make progress towards a lead-free aviation future.
Getting to an Unleaded GA
A few weeks after the big GAMA reveal at Sun ‘n Fun 2022, the heads of three general aviation member organizations discussed the potential pathway to a 100LL avgas-free future. John “Lites” Leenhouts, the outgoing Sun ‘n Fun head, emphasized the need for GA groups to unite against the potential banning of 100LL, as it could have a significant impact on the industry. Experimental Aircraft Association President and CEO Jack Pelton corrected the notion that GA had any say in the matter, stating that it is an international issue and that the removal of lead will affect the entire world. He added that the determination could come this year, when the EPA issues an “endangerment finding.” This will lead to a rulemaking process that could establish a timeline by 2030, and aviation has just over seven years until 100LL goes away.
Are We Ready for a Lead-Free GA?
The short answer is no, and the more one learns about the circumstances, the shorter the time seems. “The clock is ticking,” said Jack Pelton. “It’s a very complicated problem! A lot of people ask me about the fuel search process, and I say, that’s just a part of it. You still have distribution, storage, and the question of whether petroleum companies will step up and make it.” Mark Baker, President and CEO of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, agreed with Pelton on the complexity, saying, “We don’t want to be the last [industry] putting lead in the air, but we are. We would have liked to have [had] solutions 20 years ago, but there’s simply not been a drop-in solution that’s competitively priced and available now. There might be, pretty soon,” he said, “and we’re big advocates for that.” But Baker emphasized, based on industry workgroups, that “no later than 2030! we will no longer be selling or distributing leaded fuel in North America.” Baker put things in perspective by stating that avgas represents a relatively small market. “We use about 180 million gallons of avgas a year, which is equivalent to three or four hours of car gas [there are 8,760 hours in a calendar year].” It’s a tiny market, and Baker emphasized that the process of moving to an unleaded fuel must be profitable for the refiners. Perhaps the most chilling note of the roundtable was Baker’s reminder that there is only one facility in the world that makes the lead for 100LL, and there is no guarantee it will continue for any predictable length of time. Baker thought it “very unlikely” that the product would continue to be made over the next five to 10 years and said, “We have a lot of things stacked against us, and the thing that I am most concerned about today is keeping low lead available until we find a solution.” And he underscored the criticality of the issue, pointing to airport authorities in California who have banned the sale and distribution of 100LL at their airports, expressing concern for the safety ramifications if pilots were to use unleaded fuel in higher-horsepower engines. “Thirty percent of our airplanes,” he said, “burn about 60% of our gas,” making clear that the need for a viable 100LL replacement is not a niche problem but one central to the vitality of general aviation. GAMA President and CEO Pete Bunce said that refining higher-octane unleaded fuel is possible but expensive, and he repeated his concern that a replacement fuel (or fuels) be a drop-in replacement for 100LL, suggesting that it is something aviation needs to do before 100LL goes away. When asked about the process for approving new fuels, Bunce said the approval process would be the same as how fuels are now approved, through industry consensus standards. He seemed to be confident that once a suitable fuel is developed, its adoption would not be a major hurdle. Bunce repeated that, ideally, the solution might be the development of multiple fuels as competition tends to drive prices down, but clarified that the fuels would have to be universally compatible with each other, as pilots fly across multiple parts of the continent and are certain to use multiple fuels along the way if those fuel types are regionally distributed. In response to a question from Plane & Pilot about the potential cost differential between 100LL fuel and a 100LL replacement, AOPA’s Baker said, “We don’t have total visibility into that,” but added that, “if we do have a fuel that is fungible, that is, can be dropped in any tank, can be hauled by any truck, can be delivered across the country, perhaps in pipelines! there’s a potential long term for it to be a lower cost.” But whether such a future will arrive or not remains to be seen. As Bunce pointed out, the process of this changeover to unleaded fuel is a complex one, with the steps including (but not limited to) the development of the fuel, its approval, refiners gearing up to produce it, and getting the distribution network up to speed on it. It’s a complex process with risk at every step along the way. And, the three leaders agreed, we don’t have much time to get there.
Going Direct: Industry Commits to Lead-Free Avgas By! 2030?
Life After 100 Low Lead: GA Leaders Say Time is Short, the Problem, Complex.
